Changes in the climate and land use are combining to dramatically shrink the numbers of insects pollinating key tropical crops. As those problems interwine and intensify, it likely will hit coffee lovers right in the mug, according to a new study.
And that one-two punch will melt some chocolate fans鈥 dreams too, scientists said.
Scientists looked at thousands of species and sites and found when temperatures warmed up beyond the normal range combined with a , the number of insects that pollinate those plants plummets by 61%, according to a study in Thursday鈥檚 . Study authors said bees, flies, moths and other pollinators are being hit harder than the general insect population.
鈥淲e鈥檙e seeing the climate change is already having this really strong impact on pollinators," said study co-author Tim Newbold, an ecologist at the University College of London.
About 35% of the world's food crop and three-quarters of flowering plants , according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
And the study found the pollinator loss problem is bigger in the tropics, a region other research hasn't focused on as much. The countries most at risk of crop loss from dwindling pollinators are China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and the Philippines with sub-Saharan Africa also in danger, especially its cocoa and mango crops, the study said.
Taking what鈥檚 already happened, researchers said this bodes badly for key tropical crops, especially coffee and cocoa. Those plants rely on bees and flies to help them reproduce and fewer pollinators mean reduced crops, study authors said.
Previous studies have shown that for several reasons, including climate change and habitat loss, and other studies have shown , and yet more have shown and themselves are hurt by the interaction. But the sum of all that is even worse than just the parts, study authors said.
鈥淭here will be this double hit of climate change impacting coffee itself, the coffee plants, but also impacting the pollinators on which it depends so that鈥檚 quite worrying for those of us who like coffee,鈥 Newbold said.
That doesn鈥檛 mean no coffee or chocolate, just more expensive indulgences, said study lead author Joe Millard, a computational ecologist at the Natural History Museum in London.
What makes this study special is that it has a focus on the tropics that other insect studies haven鈥檛 had, said University of Delaware entomologist Douglas Tallamy, who wasn鈥檛 part of the research.
鈥淲e鈥檙e not paying enough attention to the tropics,鈥 Tallamy said. 鈥淭hey are important.鈥
Newbold said pollinating insects in the tropics are likely hit harder than other places because the bugs are already near their temperature limits and insects in temperate areas are more adapted to large temperature swings and they aren鈥檛 in the tropics.
鈥淢assive warming in the tropics is pushing those species over the edge,鈥 Newbold said.
Habitat loss is the main driver for the shrinking number of pollinators with less food for them, Millard said. But add to that climate change, worsening parasites and disease and pesticides, he said. And while all insects are in trouble, pollinators have it worse in warmer temperatures and scientists are still trying to come up with explanations for why.
It could be because they have hairier legs and bodies that help them carry pollen, Millard and Newbold said.
It鈥檚 like 鈥渂eing forced to have a big furry coat and it鈥檚 it鈥檚 getting hot,鈥 Newbold said.
Delaware鈥檚 Tallamy doesn鈥檛 buy that explanation. He said the study is good in its data and projections, but he said the authors鈥 explanation for why these impacts happen is more in the guessing range.
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