This story was originally published in The Narwhal, a non-profit online magazine that publishes in-depth journalism about the natural world in Canada. Sign up for weekly updates at .
Just before the official start of the provincial election in Saskatchewan, the agency responsible for overseeing the largest infrastructure project in the province鈥檚 history released a new report into its economic benefits.
Then the government shut down for the election and questions swirled.
The infrastructure project, the Lake Diefenbaker irrigation expansion, is estimated to cost $4 billion if all phases are fully built. The expansion, overseen by the provincial Water Security Agency, would double the irrigable land in the province 鈥 first refurbishing unused infrastructure and eventually building new canals to pull more water east into areas that have always relied on the whims of the weather for water.
The government says the benefits will be outsized, bringing new crops to vast areas of the province and increasing investments in food processing.
The report by consulting firm KPMG examined the financial returns of the first phase of the project, estimating it will increase provincial gross domestic product by $5.8 billion over the next 50 years. That first phase is expected to cost $1.15 billion.
The report calls it a 鈥済enerational opportunity for Saskatchewan鈥 that will contribute to the province鈥檚 reputation as a 鈥渢rusted source of food and ingredients鈥 and benefit everything from employment to investment to 鈥減rairie resilience鈥 and said it will 鈥渆nable sustainability.鈥
But critics question the economic analysis, and the lack of discussion on climate and environmental impacts including potential impacts on drinking water and a lack of Indigenous consultation.
Peter Leavitt, a professor of biology and Canada Research Chair in environmental change and society at the University of Regina, told The Narwhal economic analyses from the province tend to be 鈥渟elf-serving,鈥 designed to say what the government wants. He said the latest irrigation report is no different.
鈥淎nd the environmental stuff and the Indigenous perspectives,鈥 he said, 鈥淚 think they are going to be ignored unless they go to court.鈥
Saskatchewan is home to more than 40 per cent of Canada鈥檚 cultivated farmland, producing millions of tonnes of canola, barley, wheat, oats, lentils and more. Only a fraction relies on irrigation 鈥斺痚ssentially watering the crops instead of relying on rain.
The Lake Diefenbaker irrigation expansion will build on the province鈥檚 existing irrigation capabilities. The first phase of the project will take old canals and pump stations that were built decades ago but never used, and refurbish them to bring water farther north and west from the existing irrigation area flowing from Lake Diefenbaker 鈥 the largest body of water in southern Saskatchewan, it was created for irrigation, hydroelectricity and drinking water in 1967.
Eventually, new canals will be built to bring water east, connecting to Buffalo Pound Lake 鈥 100 kilometres southeast of Lake Diefenbaker 鈥 which provides drinking water to Moose Jaw and Regina.
The project has been on the books since 2020, but was reaffirmed as a commitment by the Scott Moe government this summer, with millions earmarked in the latest budget for phase one work.
Construction is supposed to start next year, with $30 million already spent on studies and reports.
Leavitt, who is quick to point out his expertise is not economics, called the report 鈥渟moke and mirrors鈥 and said the impacts likely won鈥檛 be as significant as the government advertises. He also pointed to the fact it ignores the costs of environmental impacts such as water pollution from increased runoff.
The report does mention 鈥減ermitting and environmental considerations and approvals鈥 as a risk, but only insofar as permits and approvals could delay the project.
Cheryl Stadnichuk, a Regina city councillor, wants to see climate modelling that looks at the impacts on water supply flowing from the Rocky Mountains in Alberta and across the plains into Lake Diefenbaker.
She worries about how often drought could affect supply, as well as about the quality of the water that will come out of the city鈥檚 taps as Buffalo Pound Lake is connected to the broader system.
鈥淏uffalo Pound Lake has to deal with a lot of algae blooms in the summer months,鈥 Stadnichuk said. 鈥淲e get a lot of complaints as city councillors from residents about, 鈥榃hy is there this smell, what鈥檚 going on?鈥 鈥
It鈥檚 not just the smell that鈥檚 a concern. Nutrients from fertilizer runoff brought by increased irrigation and canals connecting water bodies can cause those algae blooms, affecting water quality and health and impacting fish and ecosystems.
鈥淒iefenbaker, which is our drinking water reservoir for half of the population in Saskatchewan, is already exhibiting significant water quality degradation,鈥 Leavitt said.
Leavitt said the project will cross creeks that feed into the South Saskatchewan River system that ends in the largest inland river delta in North America and also supplies drinking water to Saskatoon.
鈥淪o those are sort of express ways to get nutrients and pollutants, including agrochemicals, into the water in the South Saskatchewan River,鈥 he said.
The federal Impact Assessment Agency determined there was not enough information on the first elements of the project to determine if they required a federal assessment 鈥 it was initially broken up into three phases, but now the first phase combines elements of the first two proposed phases. It did, however, say the third phase, during which new canals will bring water to the east, met the criteria for a federal review.
The province has not conducted its own environmental assessment of the project or its phases.
Leavitt wrote to the federal Impact Assessment Agency in 2021 to request an assessment, but said he鈥檚 not necessarily opposed to the project moving forward. He told The Narwhal the decision to break up the project into stages is political.
鈥淭his is the way Saskatchewan works,鈥 he said. 鈥淚t takes large projects and it splinters them to pretend that each individual project is completely in isolation and that that won't have any cumulative effects down the road. Therefore, you don't need impacts assessment. It's complete bollocks.鈥
Chief Bobby Cameron of the Federation of Sovereign Indigenous Nations told CBC News in March he was 鈥渄eeply troubled鈥 by the lack of consultation as the government moved forward on the first phase of the project.
The federation, which represents 74 First Nations in Saskatchewan, also requested a federal impact assessment and cited cumulative effects of development on rivers and lakes as well as the effects of the full irrigation expansion.
鈥淭here are concerns that water management decisions prioritize industrial and agricultural allocations over ecosystems and the impact it will have on First Nations and their ability to exercise their Inherent and Treaty Rights and traditional activities,鈥 reads the letter from 2021.
The federation did not respond to an interview request sent to its communications department.
It鈥檚 clear the Saskatchewan Party supports the irrigation expansion, moving the project forward in government and supporting it outright in its platform. The government, under Moe, is eager to get the first phase underway.
The provincial NDP said during a campaign announcement it鈥檚 open to the project, but lacks information to assess the costs and benefits.
Neither party responded to multiple requests for an interview or comments.
鈥淭hey've done a number of mega projects that are a billion plus (dollars), without providing too much information ahead of time,鈥 Stadnichuk said, citing a carbon capture project in Regina.
鈥淭hey want to take on big projects because it's going to have this wonderful economic benefit somehow, and we don't always see the results. So it's kind of hard to trust them this time around.鈥
This story is available for use by Canadian Press clients through an agreement with The Narwhal. It was originally published in The Narwhal, a non-profit online magazine that publishes in-depth journalism about the natural world in Canada. Sign up for weekly updates at .
