MANAMA, Bahrain (AP) 鈥 For Iran鈥檚 theocratic government, it keeps getting worse.
Its decadeslong strategy of building supporting militant groups and proxies around the region is falling apart. First came the crushing Israeli campaign in Gaza triggered by the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Iranian-backed Hamas.
That war spawned another in Lebanon, where Israel has mauled Iran鈥檚 most powerful ally, even as Israel has launched openly inside of Iran for the first time.
And now Iran鈥檚 longtime stalwart ally and client in Syria, As dawn broke Sunday, rebel forces completed by seizing the ancient capital of Damascus and tearing down symbols of more than 50 years of Assad's rule over the Mideast crossroads.
Ali Akbar Velayati, a key adviser to Iran鈥檚 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, once called Assad and Syria 鈥渢he golden ring of the resistance chain in the region.鈥
鈥淲ithout the Syrian government, this chain will break and the resistance against Israel and its supporters will be weakened.鈥
That break in the chain is literal. Syria was an important geographical link that allowed Iran to move weapons and other supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Its loss now further weakens Hezbollah, whose powerful arsenal in southern Lebanon had put Iranian influence directly on the border of its nemesis Israel.
鈥淚ran鈥檚 deterrence thinking is really shattered by events in Gaza, by events in Lebanon and definitely by developments in Syria,鈥 a senior diplomat from the United Arab Emirates, Anwar Gargash, said at the International Institute for Strategic Studies鈥 Manama Dialogue in Bahrain.
Iran still holds the card of its Though it denies that intention, it can use the potential for building a weapons capability to cast a shadow of influence in the region.
鈥淚ran remains a critical regional player,鈥 Gargash said. 鈥淲e should use this moment to connect and speak about what鈥檚 next in my opinion.鈥
It鈥檚 a dramatic reversal in Iran鈥檚 regional might
Only a few years ago, the Islamic Republic loomed ascendant across the wider Middle East. Its 鈥淎xis of Resistance鈥 was at a zenith.
Hezbollah in Lebanon stood up against Israel. Assad appeared to have weathered an Arab Spring uprising-turned-civil war. Iraqi insurgents killed U.S. troops with Iranian-designed roadside bombs. Yemen鈥檚 Houthi rebels fought a Saudi-led coalition to a stalemate.
Syria, at the crossroads, played a vital role.
Early in Syria鈥檚 civil war, when it appeared Assad might be overthrown, Iran and its ally, Hezbollah, rushed fighters to support him 鈥 in the name of defending Shiite shrines in Syria. Russia later joined with a scorched earth campaign of airstrikes.
The campaign won back territory, even as Syria remained divided into zones of government and insurgent control.
But the speed of Assad鈥檚 collapse the past week showed just how reliant he was on support from Iran and Russia 鈥 which at the crucial moment didn鈥檛 come.
鈥淲hat was surprising was the Syrian鈥檚 army鈥檚 failure to counter the offensive, and also the speed of the developments," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state television late Sunday night. "That was unexpected.鈥
Russia remains mired in Ukraine years after launching a full-scale invasion there in 2022. For Iran, international sanctions over its advancing nuclear program have ground down its economy.
For Israel, breaking Iran鈥檚 regional network has been a major goal, though it is wary over jihadi fighters among the insurgents who toppled Assad. Israel on Sunday moved troops into a demilitarized buffer zone with Syria by the Israel-held Golan Heights in what it called a temporary security measure.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Assad's fall a 鈥渉istoric day," saying it was 鈥渢he direct result of our forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad鈥檚 main supporters.鈥
Iran鈥檚 theocratic rulers long touted their regional network to Iranians as a show of their country鈥檚 strength, and its crumbling could raise repercussions at home 鈥 though there is no immediate sign of their hold weakening. Anger over the tens of billions of dollars Iran is believed to have spent propping up Assad was a rallying cry in rounds of that have broken out over recent years, most recently in 2022.
Iran could respond by revving up its nuclear program
The loss of Syria does not mean the end of Iran鈥檚 ability to project power in the Mideast. The Houthi rebels continue to launch attacks on Israel and on ships moving through the Red Sea 鈥 though the tempo of their attacks has again fallen without a clear explanation from their leadership.
Iran also maintains its nuclear program. While insisting it for peaceful purposes, Western intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency say Iran had an organized nuclear weapons program until 2003.
that Iran is poised to 鈥渜uite dramatically鈥 as it has started cascades of advanced centrifuges.
鈥淚f Iran would develop nuclear weapons, that would be a great blow to the international nonproliferation regime,鈥 said Thanos Dokos, Greece鈥檚 national security adviser, in Bahrain.
There remains a risk of wider attacks in the region, particularly on oil infrastructure. An attack in 2019 initially claimed by the Houthis but later assessed by experts to have been carried out by Iran .
鈥淚f, as a result of escalation, there are attacks against the energy infrastructure of Iran or Saudi Arabia, that would be bad news for the global oil supply,鈥 Dokos warned.
Whatever happens next, Iran will need to make the decision weighing the problems it faces at both home and abroad.
鈥淲hereas stability is a difficult commodity to export, instability can travel very fast, which is why stability in the Middle East is very important for all of us,鈥 Dokos said.
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EDITOR鈥橲 NOTE 鈥 , the news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the Mideast and wider world since joining the AP in 2006.
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