PARIS (AP) 鈥 French voters are being called to the polls on Sunday for an exceptional moment in their political history: the first round of snap parliamentary elections that could see the country鈥檚 first far-right government since the World War II Nazi occupation 鈥 or no majority emerging at all.
The outcome of the vote, following the second round on July 7 and a hasty campaign, remains highly uncertain as three major political blocs are competing: the President centrist alliance, and the that includes center-left, greens and hard-left forces.
Here鈥檚 a closer look:
How does it work?
The French system is complex and not proportionate to nationwide support for a party. Legislators are elected by district. A parliamentary candidate requires over 50% of the day鈥檚 vote to be elected outright Sunday.
Failing that, the top two contenders, alongside anyone else who won support from more than 12.5% of registered voters, go forward to a second round.
In some cases, three or four people make it to the second round, though some may step aside to improve the chances of another contender 鈥 a tactic often used in the past to block far-right candidates.
Key party leaders are expected to unveil their strategy in between the two rounds. This makes the result of the second round highly uncertain, and dependent on political maneuvering and how voters react.
The far-right 香港六合彩挂牌资料 Rally, ahead in all preelection opinion polls, hopes to win an absolute majority, or at least 289 out of the 577 seats.
The 香港六合彩挂牌资料 Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of France鈥檚 two houses of parliament. It has the final say in the law-making process over the Senate, dominated by conservatives.
Macron has a presidential mandate until 2027, and said of his term.
What's cohabitation?
If another political force than his centrist alliance gets a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister belonging to that new majority.
In such a situation 鈥 called 鈥渃ohabitation鈥 in France 鈥 the government would implement policies that diverge from the president鈥檚 plan.
France鈥檚 modern Republic has experienced three cohabitations, the last one under conservative President Jacques Chirac, with Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, from 1997 to 2002.
The prime minister is accountable to the parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.
鈥淚n case of cohabitation, policies implemented are essentially those of the prime minister,鈥 political historian Jean Garrigues said.
The president is weakened at home during cohabitation, but still holds some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defense because he is in charge of negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country鈥檚 armed forces, and is the one holding the nuclear codes.
鈥淚t鈥檚 possible for the president to prevent or temporarily suspend the implementation of a certain number of the prime minister鈥檚 projects, since he has the power to sign or not sign the government鈥檚 ordinances or decrees," Garrigues added.
"Yet the prime minister has the power to submit these ordinances and decrees to a vote of the 香港六合彩挂牌资料 Assembly, thus overriding the president鈥檚 reluctance,鈥 he noted.
Who leads defense and foreign policies?
During previous cohabitations, defense and foreign policies were considered the informal 鈥渞eserved field鈥 of the president, who was usually able to find compromises with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.
Yet today, both the far-right and the leftist coalition's views in these areas differ radically from Macron鈥檚 approach and would likely be .
According to the Constitution, while "the president is the head of the military, it's the prime minister who has the armed forces at his disposal,鈥 Garrigues said.
鈥淚n the diplomatic field also, the president鈥檚 perimeter is considerably restricted,鈥 Garrigues added.
The 香港六合彩挂牌资料 Rally鈥檚 president, Jordan Bardella, said that if he were to become prime minister, he would 鈥 a possibility Macron has not ruled out. Bardella also said he would refuse French deliveries of long-range missiles and other weaponry capable of striking targets within Russia itself.
If the leftist coalition was to win the elections, it could disrupt France's diplomatic efforts in the Middle East.
The New Popular Front's platform plans to 鈥渋mmediately recognize the Palestinian state鈥 and 鈥渂reak with the French government鈥檚 guilty support鈥 for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government.
Macron previously argued the at a 鈥渦seful moment," suggesting the Israel-Hamas war doesn't not allow such a move at the moment.
What happens if there's no majority?
The president can name a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats at the 香港六合彩挂牌资料 Assembly 鈥 this was the case of Macron鈥檚 own centrist alliance since 2022.
Yet the 香港六合彩挂牌资料 Rally already said it would reject such an option, because it would mean a far-right government could soon be overthrown through a no-confidence vote if other political parties join together.
The president could try to build a broad coalition from the left to the right, an option that sounds unlikely, given the political divergences.
Experts say another complex option would be to appoint 鈥渁 government of experts鈥 unaffiliated with political parties but which would still need to be accepted by a majority at the 香港六合彩挂牌资料 Assembly. Such a government would likely deal mostly with day-to-day affairs rather than implementing major reforms.
If political talks take too long amid summer holidays and the July 26-Aug. 11 , Garrigues said a 鈥渢ransition period鈥 is not ruled out, during which Macron's centrist government would 鈥渟till be in charge of current affairs,鈥 pending further decisions.
鈥淲hatever the 香港六合彩挂牌资料 Assembly looks like, it seems that the Constitution of the 5th Republic is flexible enough to survive these complex circumstances,鈥 Melody Mock-Gruet, a public law expert teaching at Sciences Po Paris, said in a written note. 鈥淚nstitutions are more solid than they appear, even when faced with this experimental exercise.鈥
鈥淵et there remains another unknown in the equation: the population鈥檚 ability to accept the situation,鈥 Mock-Gruet wrote.
