KYIV, Ukraine (AP) 鈥 The Ukraine army's surprise charge into Russia this week was a stunning maneuver that caught the Kremlin's forces unawares.
The strategic goal of in almost 900 days of remains unclear, but it counters Russia鈥檚 in recent months to punch through Ukrainian defenses at selected points along the front line in eastern Ukraine.
The Russian offensive's slow, grinding momentum has achieved only modest gains and brought heavy losses of troops and armor. But, bit by bit, the advances are adding up.
These summer months are critical for Ukraine and its depleted army. It must hold at bay its bigger and better-equipped enemy on the battlefield, while repairing 鈥 before winter arrives 鈥 a national by Russian missiles,
What does Ukraine鈥檚 eastern front battlefield look like?
The roughly 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line remains largely deadlocked.
But at points in the east, especially in . Russia is making a concerted push. Its army is exploiting the dry land to move its armor, the bushy tree lines for infantry cover, and the clear skies to launch that obliterate Ukrainian defenses.
The Russian advance is slow but relentless. Russia鈥檚 hallmark tactics are to use its artillery, missiles and bombs to reduce villages and hamlets to ruins, denying Ukrainians defensive cover and compelling them to pull back.
Moscow鈥檚 forces look to exploit weaknesses in the Ukrainian lines, driving a wedge into sections where troops levels are lower or where soldiers are being rotated out, analysts say.
The Russians are now menacing some key Ukrainian strongholds, whose fall would put the rest of the Donetsk region at risk: Pokrovsk, Toretsk and Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces are now 10 miles (16 kilometers) from Pokrovsk, an important logistics hub that supports Ukrainian forces in the region, the U.K. Defense Ministry said Friday. Russia also continues to consolidate gains in Niu-York and is advancing toward Toretsk, the ministry said.
鈥淩ight now, the momentum is clearly on Russia鈥檚 side,鈥 says Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank in Washington. Even so, he says, the overall battlefield situation is 鈥渕uch closer to a stalemate.鈥
Russia makes gains but its advance may soon peter out
Though it currently has the momentum, and appears bent on chalking up some battlefield triumphs before the weather turns, Russia also has nagging problems.
Moscow鈥檚 army sustained more than 1,000 casualties a day in May and June as it bore down on Donetsk, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry.
And while it has overrun a string of 鈥 some of them little more than a ribbon of roadside houses 鈥 its advances 鈥渨ill likely slow further as Russian forces advance into a line of larger and more urban settlements,鈥 the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said last week.
Kupchan, of the Council on Foreign Relations, isn鈥檛 expecting a major Russian breakthrough. Even if Russia can punch a hole in the line, 鈥渙rganizing a column that could advance deep behind Ukrainian lines is complicated鈥 because of logistical and organizational demands that the military can鈥檛 satisfy.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not a high-quality force,鈥 he said of the Russian army. But he added: 鈥淚n a war of attrition, numbers matter.鈥
Kostiantyn Mashovets, an expert at Ukraine鈥檚 Center for Military and Political Research, reckons Russia is pushing hard now, because it 鈥渉as reached the peak in building up its (military) forces and power.鈥
A turning point will come by the end of this year, he says, when the Kremlin will have to decide whether to launch a partial or full mobilization.
Ukraine鈥檚 surprise tactic: A drive into Russia's Kursk region
Ukraine added a new twist to the war by invading Russia鈥檚 Kursk province on Aug. 6. Officials in Kyiv have been tight-lipped about the advance of Ukrainian troops into Russia, not confirming it but not denying it either.
The surprise incursion launched from Ukraine鈥檚 northeastern Sumy region appears to be a tactic that opens a new area of conflict and, significantly, on Russian soil. The United States and Western allies who supply Ukraine with weapons have said little so far about Ukraine's incursion. U.S. officials have confirmed that the Kursk incursion is a cross-border operation in which the use of U.S.-supplied weapons is acceptable.
Some analysts say it is a short-term foray, but others say it could be the start of a concerted push to seize the city of Kursk and a nearby nuclear power plant. It's not certain what Ukraine's strategy would be to hold territory inside Russia.
Myhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said Thursday that border region attacks will cause Russia to 鈥渟tart to realize that the war is slowly creeping inside of Russian territory.鈥 He also suggested such an operation would improve Kyiv鈥檚 hand in the event of negotiations with Moscow.
鈥淲hen will it be possible to conduct a negotiation process in the way that we can push them or get something from them? Only when the war is not going on according to their scenarios,鈥 he said.
For Ukraine, the situation is grim but not hopeless
Ukraine鈥檚 troops are straining to hold back Russia鈥檚 military might and don鈥檛 have or weapons to launch their own offensive.
It's also having difficulty equipping new brigades, , and many of its front-line troops are exhausted, according to analysts.
The army is soaking up the Russian pressure by and pushing back elsewhere along the line.
鈥淓very moment for Ukraine is getting tougher and tougher,鈥 says Mathieu Boulegue, a defense expert at the Chatham House think tank in London. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 see at this stage how things can get much better than this鈥 for Ukraine.
Ukraine is hitting back by firing drones and missiles at rear areas, hitting Russian oil depots, airfields and other logistical support hubs. The recent arrival of some donated by Western countries should also help Ukraine resist.
What are the prospects for peace?
The negotiating positions of Moscow and Kyiv remain far apart. Russian President Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine's capitulation, and Zelenskyy demands that Russian forces leave his country.
Both sides seek leverage from the battlefield situation to eventually help achieve a palatable peace deal.
Putin appears happy to keep fueling a low-intensity conflict that gradually 鈥 he hopes 鈥 drains the West鈥檚 willingness to keep sending billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy complains that his hands are tied: he told in July that Ukraine can鈥檛 win the war unless the U.S. scraps the limits on the use of its weapons to attack targets in Russia.
In the background are November鈥檚 U.S. elections, which could change both sides鈥 fortunes, and in the fall, a possible second international diplomatic gathering on ending the war where 鈥 鈥 Russia might get a seat at the table.
The front-line stalemate, international political developments and the possibility of an escalation of the war in the Middle East, and uncertainty over the West鈥檚 future level of support for Ukraine hint at a way forward, Kupchan says.
鈥淚 think we鈥檙e heading toward some kind of sustained diplomatic effort鈥 to end the war, he said.
But Boulegue of Chatham House says the war hasn鈥檛 come to a crossroads yet: 鈥淎s long as both parties have things to throw at each other, they will keep doing it.鈥
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This story has been corrected to change the spelling of the analyst鈥檚 surname from Kapuchan to Kupchan.
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Hatton reported from Lisbon, Portugal.
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