WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥 One of the most important signs of how people will vote is how much education they have. Voters who attended college are much more likely to back Democrats, while those without degrees usually go Republican.
So as The Associated Press looked for places to explore this topic, we focused our attention on . The area is home to Pennsylvania State University, making it a classic blue dot in a red region.
But the county is attracting more people with college degrees, and small towns in the area are going from red to purple and purple to blue. Nothing is certain in this tumultuous election year, but the changes could help counter margins in more rural areas. Here鈥檚 what we found in Centre County.
A traditional swing county is swinging in one direction
has 160,000 residents in the middle of , and it鈥檚 been a traditional swing area over the years. But that鈥檚 changed, with Democratic presidential candidates winning consistently in recent elections and Democrats maintaining control over the county board of commissioners.
The shift is reflected in data on education. A decade ago, 39.4% of residents had a four-year college degree or more. Last year, it was up to 47.6%. County leaders are pushing to diversify the economy beyond Penn State, focusing on new attractions like an iron man triathlon and developments like expanded healthcare facilities.
鈥楤oomeranging鈥 back to Centre County
Mark Higgins, chair of the Centre County Board of Commissioners, said the area鈥檚 growth is fueled by 鈥渂oomerangs.鈥 That means people who grew up or went to school in the county are moving back to raise their families.
Cost of living is an important factor. People are moving from bigger cities to State College because it鈥檚 more affordable, and other people are moving from State College to the surrounding towns because it鈥檚 even cheaper. The result is that the blue dot is expanding in the county.
鈥淵ou see an expansion of the university community and economy,鈥 said Ezra Nanes, the Democratic mayor of State College. 鈥淚t touches all parts of the county.鈥
Big change has come to small towns
Penn State is orbited by a series of small towns which have long had a conservative reputation. However, that's been slowly changing.
Voters in Bellefonte, which has 6,000 residents, backed Trump in 2016 but supported Joe Biden in 2020. Once a struggling small town, it鈥檚 seen a wave of investment and new arrivals who have brought more liberal politics.
The change isn't everywhere though. Philipsburg, with less than 3,000 residents, hasn't yet seen the same renaissance. The decline of coal mining has sapped the town of jobs, and voters there chose Trump over Biden in 2020. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a cute little town. It just needs help," said Brittney Tekely, 31, who runs her own barber shop.
Campaigns hunting for votes
Democrats believe they can run up the score in Centre County. Their plans include engaging the left-leaning student population, which is vast but sometimes unresponsive during elections. There's also an aggressive canvassing operation in the area. 鈥淐entre County could have thousands more votes than we did in 2020 or 2016," said Abbey Carr, executive director of the county's Democratic Party.
Republicans aren't writing off the campus population, and they've held events geared toward energizing right-leaning students. Kush Desai, the Trump campaign鈥檚 Pennsylvania spokesman, said they're doing outreach at college football tailgates and focusing on winning votes from young men who are frustrated with progressive culture. 鈥淎 lot of people who are rubbing elbows are starting to chip away and come to our side instead,鈥 he said.
